Ellicott City, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

509
FXUS61 KLWX 250853
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
353 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will slowly approach from the southwest today. A cold
front will surge southward tonight. An area of low pressure will
traverse the boundary Friday as it stalls across the Ohio Valley and
Carolinas. A second wave of low pressure will drive a stronger cold
front across the area Sunday night into Monday. The next frontal
system may approach during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure is moving east off the Mid Atlantic coast this
morning. A weak wave of low pressure is located over Illinois.
In the warm advection regime ahead of this low, in concert with
a shortwave trough aloft, showers have broken out, including an
area of thunderstorms in Ohio. This activity will spread
eastward through the morning hours, although lightning likely
ends as the convection outruns the elevated instability. While
most guidance continue to paint the highest chances of rain
across western and southern parts of the CWA following the path
of the shortwave, wouldn`t be surprised to see some scattered
showers across most of the area, which is being suggested by
recent HRRR runs. While there are some isolated areas close to
the freezing mark, think precipitation should just be rain as it
reaches the area.

Any rain should be departing by early afternoon, with perhaps
some breaks in the clouds. Above normal temperatures are
expected in the 50s to lower 60s. A cold front trailing low
pressure moving off the Maine coast will overtake the southern
system, crossing by early evening. Strong high pressure builds
across eastern Canada in its wake, with northerly winds ushering
in colder and drier low level air overnight. Most places except
central Virginia and the southern Shenandoah Valley will fall
below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The next shortwave trough and surface low approach from the west
on Friday. The most recent trend has been a shift northward with
this system. Locally, that results in a downward trend in
precipitation amounts. Some model guidance even has very little
precipitation across the southern half to three quarters of the
forecast area as the low transfers off the coast. This also
makes snow a little less likely in northeast Maryland. Sleet and
freezing rain are still on the table, however, given the
continued source of cold, dry low level air with warm air aloft.
And it only takes a little ice to create travel difficulties.
This threat still looks greatest north of I-66/US-50 (as well as
some ridges to the south). Probabilities remain greatest for a
quarter inch of ice along the eastern slopes of the Allegheny
Front in western Maryland. Given the changing dynamics of this
system, have elected to keep the Winter Storm Watch in place for
now and wait another cycle before determining the need for
Winter Weather Advisories. The bulk of the precipitation will
fall during the afternoon and evening, with perhaps some
lingering drizzle/freezing drizzle overnight as the surface low
jumps offshore. Non-diurnal temperatures are likely, with
warming from the southwest Friday night, though cold air likely
remains locked in across northern areas that see the most
precipitation.

High pressure builds back in from the north on Saturday.
However, some residual low level moisture along a trailing
baroclinic zone combined with northeasterly winds may result in
a lot of cloud cover and perhaps some light rain or drizzle,
especially along the I-95 corridor. Locations southwest of US
Route 33 or so are most likely to see some breaks of sun which
would increase their temperatures into the mid and upper 50s.
40s and upper 30s will be more common to the northeast. Lows
Saturday night will mostly be in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad upper ridging will initially extend along the Eastern Seaboard
on Sunday. At the same time, a full latitude trough progresses
across the Great Plains toward the Mississippi River Valley. Ample
ascent ahead of these height falls should spread rainfall across the
local area on Sunday. It remains to be seen whether an upstream warm
front is able to track through the region. The combination of cool
high pressure initially to the north and ample clouds/precipitation
will likely make it challenging for this approaching warm front.
Models do show some of this milder air working its way into the
Allegheny Front and adjacent mountain valleys. Upper 40s to 50s are
expected in this area on Sunday, with low/mid 40s along I-70 in
northern Maryland.

The swift moving cold front attendant to this upper trough is slated
to cross through the area early Monday. Some morning rain showers
are possible before conditions clear out. The exception would be
along the Alleghenies where temperatures should be cold enough to
support a rain/snow mix. Breezy west-northwesterly winds take shape
in the wake, especially across the higher elevations where gusts up
to 35 to 45 mph are possible. Wind fields remain elevated into
Monday night which will make for a cold night. Low temperatures are
forecast to fall into the upper teens to mid 20s, with single digits
to teens in the mountains. Further, wind chills will drop below zero
across the higher elevations.

Expect a chilly late December day on Tuesday which comes with
blustery winds. Forecast high temperatures will be in the 30s, with
upper teens and 20s across the mountains. West-northwesterly winds
are likely to gust to around 20 to 30 mph (35 to 45 mph over
mountain locales). However, all of this does come with a dry
forecast underneath abundant sunshine. After another cold night,
temperatures gradually rebound into mid 30s to low 40s on Wednesday,
the last day of 2025.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Winds become southerly this morning ahead of a wave of low
pressure. Some light rain showers will cross the area through
the morning hours, with the highest chance at CHO. However, will
be monitoring the progression of upstream convection in the Ohio
Valley as it may affect the northern terminals (though likely
without any lightning). Chances are now lower for MVFR ceilings,
and if they do occur, would likely be brief. Dry conditions are
expected this afternoon as winds shift to the west and northwest.
A cold front will cross during the early evening hours, and
northerly winds may be gusty for a time.

A low pressure system will affect the area Friday into Friday
night. The most likely time frame for precipitation is Friday
afternoon and evening. BWI, MTN, and MRB likely see sleet and
freezing rain. Wintry precipitation is a bit more uncertain for
IAD/DCA. CHO is likely mostly rain (if they see precipitation at
all). IFR conditions likely develop, especially for the northern
terminals, which last through Friday night.

High pressure in the wake of the system will keep winds
north/northeasterly, which may lock in low level moisture
Saturday. MVFR to IFR ceilings may persist, especially Saturday
night. There could be some drizzle at times across the metro
terminals as well. CHO has the highest chance of maintaining VFR
conditions.

With rain arriving during the second half of Sunday, expect sub-VFR
conditions to materialize as this occurs. These largely should stick
around into Monday morning before precipitation exits. The focus
shifts toward a gusty west-northwesterly wind in the wake of a cold
front. Monday`s gusts could reach 20 to 30 knots at the terminals,
while remaining slightly elevated into the night.

&&

.MARINE...
As a weak wave of low pressure crosses the waters today,
southerly winds may briefly approach advisory levels during the
morning. At this time, an advisory does not seem warranted. A
cold front will push through during the early evening, with a
period of gusty northerly winds in its wake. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for most of the Chesapeake Bay and lower
tidal Potomac River. Winds should abate around or shortly after
sunrise Friday.

While a wintry mix may impact portions of the waters on Friday into
Friday night, wind fields should likely stay below advisory
criteria. There may be a brief period period of enhanced
easterly to southerly flow during the late afternoon and
evening. As the low moves off the coast Saturday and high
pressure builds back in, northerly winds could approach advisory
levels. Winds will likely diminish Saturday night.

Ahead of a strong cold front, southerly winds pick up in strength
Sunday evening into the night. Small Craft Advisories will likely be
needed during this uptick as well as behind the cold front on
Monday. With a forecast of 30 to 35 knot gusts, gale conditions are
also possible.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for MDZ501-510.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...ADS/BRO
MARINE...ADS/BRO